Featured Strategies 2022
2021 In Review
At time of writing (12/23/21), we don’t yet have the final numbers for 2021. But it looks like the clear winner of the 2021 beer bet will be Travis. This link below shows all of the 2021 beer bets, compared against the C & S funds, as well as a 50/50 split:
Travis had the highest return of all of us, by a lot! Ryan, Anthony, Jerin, Larry and I are all currently on track to beat the S fund this year, but only I and Travis are currently ahead of a 50/50 C&S split. A lot can happen in the remaining 5 trading days, so we’ll see what happens!
Congratulations Travis! Your beer of beers, your king of hops, is on the way. The only beer fit for an American-
Also, here are two other strategies that I featured in 2021. These strategies were all made before 1/1/2018 (though I don’t know the exact dates), and they had beat buy and hold in all three years 2018-2020. Unfortunately, neither of them did that in 2021:
https://tspcalc.com/seasonal.php?ID=25196&years=18-21&benchmarks=C-S-I-18042
********************
Beer Bet 2022
********************
Now, on to next year. Below are the moderator picks for the infamous 2022 Beer Bet.
Matt – 162768
I started my strategy pick by reviewing my last three years of strategies-
- 2019: 57805
- 2020: 86104
- 2021: 131229
Here’s all three of them compared against the C & S funds:
https://tspcalc.com/seasonal.php?ID=131229&benchmarks=C-S-57805-Matt20&years=19-21
If I had stuck with 57805 three years in a row- I would have a total three-year return of 98.92%. That is compared to the C & S three-year returns of 98.39% (C) and 89.90% (S). Numbers as of 12/23/2021. However, that includes a rough 2020 of just 5.60% when the C & S returns were 18.31% and 31.85%, respectively.
If I had stuck with 86104 two years in a row (2020-2021), then I would have a total two-year return of 73.95%. The C fund has a two-year return of 50.92% and the S fund has a two-year return of 48.40% (again, 12/23/21 numbers). Note that 86104 is a strategy that only uses the C & S funds. It’s not fair to include how 86104 would have done in 2019, because it was built using 2019 data.
However, 86104 was built using Blind Test Case 28. I looked at what the same methodology (Case 28) would have produced in 2019, 2020, and 2021, using the data available at the time. Assuming I changed my strategy every year, my returns would have been 2019 = 30.76%, 2020 = 19.55%, 2021 = 29.75%. The three-year return would be 102.82%.
My 2021 pick, 131229, is currently ahead of the S fund but trailing the C fund. It is currently 1.20% ahead of a 50/50 buy and hold split. This is a (C, S, & I) strategy. However, as I noted in the Featured Strategies 2021 post, there was an error when I built 131229. After fixing that issue, the same criteria set produced strategy # 138665, which is almost tied with S fund, and waaaay behind C fund for this year:
https://tspcalc.com/seasonal.php?ID=138665&benchmarks=C-S-I&years=21-21
After consideration, I’ve decided to return to my 2020 methodology. The methodology is Blind Test Case 28. In the Seasonal Builder, set years to 2004-2021, set Sort By to “Beats C Rate”, and select 0G, 0F, and 0I. Then click filter, wait (quite a while), then click “Apply Best Fit”. That yields strategy #162768
https://tspcalc.com/seasonal.php?ID=162768&benchmarks=C-S-I
Travis – 158283
I can’t help it. I have to play and tweak with my strategy throughout the year because I’m “smarter” than the numbers.
And, though there were a few moments where I floated above my strategy, it again, managed to humble me. That being said, I found success in a return to my roots where my attempt to beat the benchmark strategies resulted in me being very successful in that endeavor and earning myself a victory in the TSPCalc Beer Bet!
That’s right ladies and gentlemen! Free beer!
The “all equities” strategy can be frustrating at times, and down right terrifying at others. Currently the market is experiencing turmoil, and I can sense the general desire among many members to pull out of the market, but I’m finding my own risk tolerance and experience allows me to make some calmer choices.
For 2022, I am continuing my walk down the “all equities” path, and have seemingly found a GEM of a strategy: 158283.
This strategy has been phenomenal and beaten Team Travis every single year we have a record of!
It spends slightly more time in the I Fund, but it’s mean of 26.25% (as of this writing) and compounded return of 5150% (versus 1299.55% for my 2021 strategy, and 549% for the S Fund) leaves me salivating.
In fact, it has only “lost” once to any of the benchmark’s: In 2006 to the I Fund. I’m going to make it a personal goal to stick 100% to 158283 and break my terrible habit of trying to outthink my strategy!
For those who don’t know, I have begun subscribing to “all equities” strategies, which means that I am only ever in C/S/I during the year, with the goal of beating buy and hold.
Come join Team Travis and lets make some money!
Deena – 162551
Going with 162551.
I made 162409 which is 57171 (old trusty, thanks Jerin!) with no F fund. Because the goal is to ultimately beat Travis’ strategy and he’s always been my trusty sidekick, I took the best months from 162409 and the best months Travis’ 2022 strategy 158283 and made 162551. I may have made another tweak here and there, but I failed to take notes.
Larry – 162464
My beer bet strategy for 2022 is 162464. This is a continuation of my theme no F-Fund, little to no I-Fund. The foundation of this strategy is 66909, with one change to 75C 25S in December to match my current status.
Changing the foundation strategy from S to 75C 25S also shifts this new strategy from relatively equal C and S time to much more C heavy. I think that’s probably a good thing, at least in the short term.
66909 was basically max 40% in each G, C and S with IFTs capped at 15. With this sort criteria, 66909 was always in the top group of strategies, regardless of the combination of years I compared.
The idea of limiting the number of IFTs might be a little hard for me to explain. I think it started with just trying to eliminate some of those 1-2 day spans in a fund. Those never seemed to work out for me. There is more to it than that, and I feel it has to do with trading days vs. calendar days over the years.
I have this theory that even when the strategies are right, they can miss by 3 or more days either side of the indicated trading day. One reason for this might be the day/date that certain things happen. For example, monthly options expiration occurs on the third Friday of each month, The third Friday can be anywhere between the 15th and 21st.
Why 15? I was trying to get to 12, but a lot of sorting and filtering taught me that this was the sweet spot with regards to an acceptable strategy. At 14, the SD seemed to skyrocket, and there didn’t appear to be much advantage to increasing to 16-21.
There it is. It doesn’t look like much on the surface, but this will be my guide for 2022.
Jerin – 162452
Alrighty… This is Jerin 2022. It’s the Jerin 2021… losing all F… and adding an all S January.
https://www.tspcalc.com/seasonal.php?ID=162452&years=04-21
Ryan – 154612
Because I don’t drink nor bet, I’m not officially taking part in the “beer bet” competition. However, that allows me to introduce a strategy and a couple of reasons that you may want to think of when choosing your own strategies:
The beer bet is a fun, creative way that Matt and the original veterans of seasonal investing started to not only beat buying and holding C and S (or a combination thereof) but also best each other each year. As the separate Facebook group for TSPcalc discussions etc grew and the moderator team grew as well, the beer bet adopted in new faces and perspectives – mine included.
Over the last year or two, there have been a variety of discussions in the FB group as well as among the moderators as to how best to use seasonal strategies. Various views think that they are best used as one of several tools to try and predict the market, while others think they should be more of a measure of “in” the market (equities) vs “out” of the market (cash/G). The theories of the beer bet are that you can adjust your strategy yearly to do better than last year while still beating C/S buy/hold. While others want a strategy to follow without much thought.
I fall into the camp of trying to find a strategy that consistently performs with decent numbers year after year. I don’t necessarily need to always identify the home runs if I can get consistency. Retirement is a long game, and I don’t want to be changing my game plan after every set of downs.
That said, how did I choose 154612? First, it has no F fund. I think with interest rates scheduled to rise next year, F could be an interesting play, but generally, the strategies spend so little time in F that if there is a day or two that gets a negative deviation off of AGG, then it can really hit that time period. I chose one with limited I fund exposure for the same reasons. At that point, some would question why not just an all-equity strategy like has won the last couple of years. Remember, I’m looking for consistency. While all-equities can certainly do well in the bull runs, I do think Dec 2021 is signaling some signs of a correction. It may not happen in 2022, but if it does, if I can miss some of the slides while in G, I think it will prove better off in the long run.
To add to an already long post, I did consider strategies like 83612, which have no S fund. For reasons that are too long to post here, I think C is in a better position to outperform S for the time being, but getting back to the consistency, 154612 has historically performed consistently well.
TL;DR – (This is your retirement, how can you not read everything? J/k.) Because I’m not officially taking part in the beer bet, I’m not trying to necessarily best everyone else as much as I’m looking for consistent returns. I want no F and limited I funds with as consistent high historical returns as possible. I do want some G to try and save during some slumps.
About Author
